ARV Calculator
What will this property be worth once the work is done? Estimate after-repair value from comparable sales, adjusted for size and condition.
Estimated after-repair value
$321,500
The subject property
The house you are buying, described as it will be when the work is finished.
Above-grade living area, not the lot
Positive if your finish beats the comps, negative if it will not
Pool, extra garage bay, water view. Negative if the comps have something you do not.
Median ignores one runaway comp. Average lets it pull the answer.
Comparable sales
Closed sales, not listings. Three is a floor, five is better. Leave a slot empty to skip it.
Estimated after-repair value
$321,500
Built on the median rate of $179.83 per square foot across 4 sales, rounded to the nearest half-thousand.
- Low end of range
- $317,000
- High end of range
- $322,500
Tight comp set
4 sales inside a 1.8% band on price per square foot. That is as much agreement as this method produces, and the range from $317,000 to $322,500 is narrow enough to underwrite against.
The range, not the number
- Low comp$177.19 per sq ft
- $317,000
- Median of the comps$179.83 per sq ft
- $321,500
- High comp$180.36 per sq ft
- $322,500
- Spread across the comp setHigh comp less low comp, over the median
- 1.8%
How the estimate is built
- Comparable sales, net of any reductions94%
- Condition and finish uplift4%
- Features added2%
From comps to value
- Median price per square footFrom 4 comparable sales
- $179.83
- Subject size — 1,685 sq ftRate applied to the subject's finished square footage
- $303,013
- Condition and finish, 4.0%
- + $12,121
- Features the comps do not have
- + $6,500
- After-repair value
- $321,500
- 70% of ARV, before rehabThe classic screening figure. Subtract your rehab budget from it.
- $225,000
What each comp says on its own
The same subject, valued off one sale at a time. A row a long way from the others is the comp to justify or drop.
| Comp | Per sq ft | Size gap | Implies |
|---|---|---|---|
| Comp A$312,500 | $179.60at basis | +3% | $321,000 |
| Comp B$289,900 | $180.06at basis | −4% | $322,000 |
| Comp C$334,000 | $177.19−1% | +12% | $317,000 |
| Comp D$298,500 | $180.36at basis | −2% | $322,500 |
Size gap is the comp’s square footage against the subject’s. Anything past 25% is marked, because price per square foot falls as houses get bigger and a mismatched comp moves the answer without showing up in the spread.
How this is calculated
The estimate comes from one derived variable, price per square foot, applied to the subject and then adjusted twice:
rate = sale price ÷ square footage, for each comparable sale
ARV = (basis rate × subject square footage) × (1 + condition %) + feature adjustment
The basis rate is the median of the comp set by default, not the average. That is a deliberate choice: the median ignores one runaway sale, and a runaway sale is exactly what a small comp set produces — a flip that came in at a rate nobody else in the neighbourhood achieved, or a distressed sale that never reached the open market. The average lets that one number pull the answer in proportion to how wrong it is. Switch to the average when you have five genuinely tight comps and want them all to count equally.
The spread figure is (high rate − low rate) ÷ median rate, and it is the number to read before the value. Under about 12% the comp set agrees and the midpoint means something. Past about 25% it does not: the sales are describing different products, and no arithmetic performed on them produces a value. In that case the useful output of this page is not the ARV, it is the fact that the comp set needs rebuilding.
The two adjustments do different jobs. The condition percentage scales the whole comp-derived figure and covers the gap between your finished level and the level the comps sold in — a full renovation against a set of tired but liveable sales is a few points up, not a few tens of points. The feature adjustment is flat dollars for something the comps do not have at all: a pool, a second garage bay, a water view. It is applied after the percentage because it does not scale with square footage.
Everything is rounded to the nearest half-thousand, and each comp is also run on its own so you can see what a single sale claims the subject is worth. A comp that implies a value far from the rest is the one to justify before you rely on the set.
Common questions
What is after-repair value?
After-repair value is what a property will sell for once the renovation is finished and it is competing with ordinary retail listings. It is not what the house is worth today, and it is not today's value plus what you spend. It is a forecast of a future sale, made from sales that have already closed. Every other number in a flip depends on it: the maximum offer, the lender's loan-to-ARV, the profit and whether the deal exists at all. Get it wrong on the high side and nothing downstream can save the deal.
How many comps do I need, and how do I choose them?
Three closed sales is the working floor and five is better. Take arm's-length sales in the same school attendance zone, ideally within half a mile, closed within the last six months, of the same style and roughly the same size — within a quarter of the subject's square footage is the guideline this tool marks. Exclude foreclosures, sales between relatives and anything that sold in a different condition band than your finished product. Active listings are not comps: they are asking prices, and asking prices are opinions.
Why does this show a range instead of one number?
Because the range is the honest output. An ARV quoted to the dollar implies a precision that four sales and a tape measure cannot support, and the false confidence is what gets people hurt: they underwrite to the midpoint, the house sells at the bottom of the band, and the difference was visible the whole time. The low figure is what you should underwrite to. The midpoint is a convenience. The high figure is the outcome you do not get to count on. Every value here is rounded to the nearest half-thousand for the same reason.
When does price per square foot break down?
It is not linear in size. A 1,200 square foot house and a 2,400 square foot house on the same street do not sell for the same rate per foot — the smaller one sells for more, because the lot, the kitchen and the roof are fixed costs spread over fewer feet. So a comp far from the subject in size drags the estimate in a direction the spread figure cannot see, which is why comps more than 25% off in size are marked here. The method also ignores lot size, garage, bathroom count and the date of sale. Use the desktop appraisal when those differ.
Should ARV include the money I am spending on repairs?
No, and adding it is the most common double count in a flip pro forma. ARV is the finished sale price; the rehab budget is a cost that gets subtracted from it separately, in the maximum offer or the flip calculator. The comps you are using already sold in finished condition, so the renovation is priced into their sale prices and therefore into the rate per foot you are applying. The condition adjustment here exists only for the difference between your finished level and theirs, not for the work itself.
Is this the same as an appraisal?
No. An appraiser inspects the property, adjusts each comparable line by line for size, bedrooms, bathrooms, garage, lot and date of sale, reconciles the adjusted prices and signs a report a lender will rely on. This tool applies one variable — a rate per square foot — and two judgement adjustments you enter yourself. It is a screening estimate for deciding whether a property is worth a closer look. The desktop appraisal calculator does the line-item version, and neither replaces a licensed appraisal.
Related calculators
Run these numbers on a real deal
Every off-market listing on the marketplace carries the figures this calculator asks for, so you can price a deal without retyping it.
Browse off-market dealsThis calculator estimates results from the numbers you enter. It does not know the property, your lender’s terms, local taxes or the rules of your state, and it is not financial, tax or legal advice. Nothing here has been reviewed by a lawyer. Confirm every figure with your lender, title company and your own professionals before you rely on it.